How scoring works

The Brier score

Your call p is scored against the outcome (1 if it happened, 0 if it did not) as (p/100 − outcome)². A perfect record is 0; saying 50 % to everything scores 0.25 — the coin flip; the worst possible call scores 1.

Confidence is rewarded when you are right and punished hard when you are wrong — which is why an honest 60 % beats a bluffed 95 %. You can edit a call until the question closes; the last standing call is the one scored.

The crowd

Each question shows the crowd's consensus: the average of everyone's latest call. Until you have 5 resolved calls you count once. After that your weight follows your record — a perfect history counts double, a coin-flip history counts once, a history worse than chance counts down to a quarter. The crowd is published; individual calls are not.

Leaderboard and league

The leaderboard ranks forecasters by mean Brier score over their resolved questions, overall and by situation class. The league scores you against the crowd: on each question, for each day it was open, the crowd's Brier minus yours, averaged — beating the crowd is positive, trailing it is negative. You are ranked in the league once 10 of your questions have resolved; before that your row reads how many to go.

Resolution

Every question names its resolution source when it is written — USGS for an earthquake, DefiLlama for an exploit, the venue's status page for an outage — and that source decides. Resolutions are logged with the time and the source; a question whose source cannot settle it is voided and nobody is scored.

Streaks

A streak counts consecutive UTC days with at least one call. You hold 2 freezes: a missed day spends one and the streak survives; every 7 called days earn one back. With no freeze left, a missed day resets the streak. Streaks are for showing up — they never change a score.

Now make a call

See the open questionsNew to the numbers? Start with how to read odds.