Monitoring

What the market priced vs what happened

Prediction-market prices are easy to quote after the fact and impossible to verify after the fact. So we record them before the event resolves — the question, the price each venue carried, the source URL and the timestamp — and then let resolution fill in what actually happened. Nothing here is written in hindsight.

53 entries recorded · 3 resolved · 50 awaiting resolution · ledger last updated 2026-09-25

3 resolved entries — still not enough to score anything

Entries below have resolved, and the ledger now shows the price each venue carried beforehand next to what actually happened. That demonstrates the record works — the prices were written down in advance, with sources, and can be checked. It does not show that prediction markets are accurate, and we are not going to claim it does. Accuracy is calibration: whether things priced at 60% happen about 60% of the time, measured across hundreds of events. With 3 resolved entries there is no error bar and no score to report. The value of this page is the series it accumulates, not any single row in it.

The ledger

Which party controls the US House after the 2026 midterm elections?

Awaiting resolution

The next long-dated market Monitoring already tracks on /us-midterms-2026. Recorded on 2026-07-20, roughly three and a half months before election day on 3 November 2026 — so the price is captured while the question is genuinely open, not near the close.

Democratic Party

Polymarket84.5%

Recorded 2026-07-20 00:47 UTC · source

Read directly from Polymarket's public Gamma API (event which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026, market outcomePrices) — the same feed behind /api/us-midterms-2026.

Republican Party

Polymarket15.5%

Recorded 2026-07-20 00:47 UTC · source

Read directly from Polymarket's public Gamma API (event which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026, market outcomePrices) — the same feed behind /api/us-midterms-2026.

Venue spread · Not comparable — only one venue price is recorded for each side of this question, so there is nothing to compare.

What actually happened

Not yet known. This event has not resolved, so the ledger records no outcome — Monitoring does not fill this in with a guess. Scheduled to resolve 2026-11-03 00:00 UTC.

Caveats on this record

  • Only one venue is recorded. Kalshi's public elections API listed no open 2026 House-control market when this entry was written on 2026-07-20, so there is no second price to compare — and none was invented. This entry therefore has no venue spread.
  • The two figures are separate binary contracts inside one Polymarket event group, not two independent readings. They currently sum to exactly 1.00; that is a property of how the group is quoted, not corroboration.
  • This price is captured months before resolution and will move — possibly a great deal. It is a record of what the market carried on 2026-07-20, not a forecast by Monitoring and not a claim about the election.

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Awaiting resolution

Enrolled automatically before resolution so the pre-event price exists at all. The outcome is not recorded here and is never inferred from a price.

Yes

Polymarket38.5%

Recorded 2026-09-22 06:00 UTC · source

read from the venue's public market feed at as_of

Venue spread · Not comparable — only one venue price is recorded for each side of this question, so there is nothing to compare.

What actually happened

Not yet known. This event has not resolved, so the ledger records no outcome — Monitoring does not fill this in with a guess. Scheduled to resolve 2026-10-04 00:00 UTC.

Caveats on this record

  • Enrolled automatically; one venue only. A single-venue row cannot show cross-venue divergence.
  • outcome_label "Yes" is the venue's first outcome; the price is that side's implied probability.

Sources

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Awaiting resolution

Enrolled automatically before resolution so the pre-event price exists at all. The outcome is not recorded here and is never inferred from a price.

Yes

Polymarket60.85%

Recorded 2026-09-22 06:00 UTC · source

read from the venue's public market feed at as_of

Venue spread · Not comparable — only one venue price is recorded for each side of this question, so there is nothing to compare.

What actually happened

Not yet known. This event has not resolved, so the ledger records no outcome — Monitoring does not fill this in with a guess. Scheduled to resolve 2026-10-04 00:00 UTC.

Caveats on this record

  • Enrolled automatically; one venue only. A single-venue row cannot show cross-venue divergence.
  • outcome_label "Yes" is the venue's first outcome; the price is that side's implied probability.

Sources

Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Awaiting resolution

Enrolled automatically before resolution so the pre-event price exists at all. The outcome is not recorded here and is never inferred from a price.

Yes

Polymarket0.15%

Recorded 2026-09-23 06:00 UTC · source

read from the venue's public market feed at as_of

Venue spread · Not comparable — only one venue price is recorded for each side of this question, so there is nothing to compare.

What actually happened

Not yet known. This event has not resolved, so the ledger records no outcome — Monitoring does not fill this in with a guess. Scheduled to resolve 2026-10-04 00:00 UTC.

Caveats on this record

  • Enrolled automatically; one venue only. A single-venue row cannot show cross-venue divergence.
  • outcome_label "Yes" is the venue's first outcome; the price is that side's implied probability.

Sources

Korea Open: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell

Awaiting resolution

Enrolled automatically before resolution so the pre-event price exists at all. The outcome is not recorded here and is never inferred from a price.

Yes

Polymarket31.5%

Recorded 2026-09-25 06:00 UTC · source

read from the venue's public market feed at as_of

Venue spread · Not comparable — only one venue price is recorded for each side of this question, so there is nothing to compare.

What actually happened

Not yet known. This event has not resolved, so the ledger records no outcome — Monitoring does not fill this in with a guess. Scheduled to resolve 2026-10-02 03:00 UTC.

Caveats on this record

  • Enrolled automatically; one venue only. A single-venue row cannot show cross-venue divergence.
  • outcome_label "Yes" is the venue's first outcome; the price is that side's implied probability.

Sources

Hangzhou Open: Dane Sweeny vs Taro Daniel

Awaiting resolution

Enrolled automatically before resolution so the pre-event price exists at all. The outcome is not recorded here and is never inferred from a price.

Yes

Polymarket56%

Recorded 2026-09-24 06:00 UTC · source

read from the venue's public market feed at as_of

Venue spread · Not comparable — only one venue price is recorded for each side of this question, so there is nothing to compare.

What actually happened

Not yet known. This event has not resolved, so the ledger records no outcome — Monitoring does not fill this in with a guess. Scheduled to resolve 2026-10-01 05:00 UTC.

Caveats on this record

  • Enrolled automatically; one venue only. A single-venue row cannot show cross-venue divergence.
  • outcome_label "Yes" is the venue's first outcome; the price is that side's implied probability.

Sources

Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in September?

Awaiting resolution

Enrolled automatically before resolution so the pre-event price exists at all. The outcome is not recorded here and is never inferred from a price.

Yes

Polymarket68.5%

Recorded 2026-09-22 06:00 UTC · source

read from the venue's public market feed at as_of

Venue spread · Not comparable — only one venue price is recorded for each side of this question, so there is nothing to compare.

What actually happened

Not yet known. This event has not resolved, so the ledger records no outcome — Monitoring does not fill this in with a guess. Scheduled to resolve 2026-10-01 04:00 UTC.

Caveats on this record

  • Enrolled automatically; one venue only. A single-venue row cannot show cross-venue divergence.
  • outcome_label "Yes" is the venue's first outcome; the price is that side's implied probability.

Sources

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?

Awaiting resolution

Enrolled automatically before resolution so the pre-event price exists at all. The outcome is not recorded here and is never inferred from a price.

Yes

Polymarket0.3%

Recorded 2026-09-16 06:00 UTC · source

read from the venue's public market feed at as_of

Venue spread · Not comparable — only one venue price is recorded for each side of this question, so there is nothing to compare.

What actually happened

Not yet known. This event has not resolved, so the ledger records no outcome — Monitoring does not fill this in with a guess. Scheduled to resolve 2026-10-01 03:59 UTC.

Caveats on this record

  • Enrolled automatically; one venue only. A single-venue row cannot show cross-venue divergence.
  • outcome_label "Yes" is the venue's first outcome; the price is that side's implied probability.

Sources

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

Awaiting resolution

Enrolled automatically before resolution so the pre-event price exists at all. The outcome is not recorded here and is never inferred from a price.

Yes

Polymarket8.5%

Recorded 2026-09-21 06:00 UTC · source

read from the venue's public market feed at as_of

Venue spread · Not comparable — only one venue price is recorded for each side of this question, so there is nothing to compare.

What actually happened

Not yet known. This event has not resolved, so the ledger records no outcome — Monitoring does not fill this in with a guess. Scheduled to resolve 2026-10-01 03:59 UTC.

Caveats on this record

  • Enrolled automatically; one venue only. A single-venue row cannot show cross-venue divergence.
  • outcome_label "Yes" is the venue's first outcome; the price is that side's implied probability.

Sources

Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?

Awaiting resolution

Enrolled automatically before resolution so the pre-event price exists at all. The outcome is not recorded here and is never inferred from a price.

Yes

Polymarket61%

Recorded 2026-09-23 06:00 UTC · source

read from the venue's public market feed at as_of

Venue spread · Not comparable — only one venue price is recorded for each side of this question, so there is nothing to compare.

What actually happened

Not yet known. This event has not resolved, so the ledger records no outcome — Monitoring does not fill this in with a guess. Scheduled to resolve 2026-10-01 03:59 UTC.

Caveats on this record

  • Enrolled automatically; one venue only. A single-venue row cannot show cross-venue divergence.
  • outcome_label "Yes" is the venue's first outcome; the price is that side's implied probability.

Sources

Trump out as President by September 30?

Awaiting resolution

Enrolled automatically before resolution so the pre-event price exists at all. The outcome is not recorded here and is never inferred from a price.

Yes

Polymarket0.65%

Recorded 2026-09-20 06:00 UTC · source

read from the venue's public market feed at as_of

Venue spread · Not comparable — only one venue price is recorded for each side of this question, so there is nothing to compare.

What actually happened

Not yet known. This event has not resolved, so the ledger records no outcome — Monitoring does not fill this in with a guess. Scheduled to resolve 2026-10-01 03:59 UTC.

Caveats on this record

  • Enrolled automatically; one venue only. A single-venue row cannot show cross-venue divergence.
  • outcome_label "Yes" is the venue's first outcome; the price is that side's implied probability.

Sources

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?

Awaiting resolution

Enrolled automatically before resolution so the pre-event price exists at all. The outcome is not recorded here and is never inferred from a price.

Yes

Polymarket0.35%

Recorded 2026-09-24 06:00 UTC · source

read from the venue's public market feed at as_of

Venue spread · Not comparable — only one venue price is recorded for each side of this question, so there is nothing to compare.

What actually happened

Not yet known. This event has not resolved, so the ledger records no outcome — Monitoring does not fill this in with a guess. Scheduled to resolve 2026-10-01 03:59 UTC.

Caveats on this record

  • Enrolled automatically; one venue only. A single-venue row cannot show cross-venue divergence.
  • outcome_label "Yes" is the venue's first outcome; the price is that side's implied probability.

Sources

Korea Open: Anna Bondar vs Alina Charaeva

Awaiting resolution

Enrolled automatically before resolution so the pre-event price exists at all. The outcome is not recorded here and is never inferred from a price.

Yes

Polymarket39%

Recorded 2026-09-24 06:00 UTC · source

read from the venue's public market feed at as_of

Venue spread · Not comparable — only one venue price is recorded for each side of this question, so there is nothing to compare.

What actually happened

Not yet known. This event has not resolved, so the ledger records no outcome — Monitoring does not fill this in with a guess. Scheduled to resolve 2026-10-01 01:00 UTC.

Caveats on this record

  • Enrolled automatically; one venue only. A single-venue row cannot show cross-venue divergence.
  • outcome_label "Yes" is the venue's first outcome; the price is that side's implied probability.

Sources

US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?

Awaiting resolution

Enrolled automatically before resolution so the pre-event price exists at all. The outcome is not recorded here and is never inferred from a price.

Yes

Polymarket86.5%

Recorded 2026-09-25 06:00 UTC · source

read from the venue's public market feed at as_of

Venue spread · Not comparable — only one venue price is recorded for each side of this question, so there is nothing to compare.

What actually happened

Not yet known. This event has not resolved, so the ledger records no outcome — Monitoring does not fill this in with a guess. Scheduled to resolve 2026-09-30 23:59 UTC.

Caveats on this record

  • Enrolled automatically; one venue only. A single-venue row cannot show cross-venue divergence.
  • outcome_label "Yes" is the venue's first outcome; the price is that side's implied probability.

Sources

Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?

Awaiting resolution

Enrolled automatically before resolution so the pre-event price exists at all. The outcome is not recorded here and is never inferred from a price.

Yes

Polymarket99.75%

Recorded 2026-09-22 06:00 UTC · source

read from the venue's public market feed at as_of

Venue spread · Not comparable — only one venue price is recorded for each side of this question, so there is nothing to compare.

What actually happened

Not yet known. This event has not resolved, so the ledger records no outcome — Monitoring does not fill this in with a guess. Scheduled to resolve 2026-09-30 23:59 UTC.

Caveats on this record

  • Enrolled automatically; one venue only. A single-venue row cannot show cross-venue divergence.
  • outcome_label "Yes" is the venue's first outcome; the price is that side's implied probability.

Sources

Chengdu Open: Sebastian Baez vs Jenson Brooksby

Awaiting resolution

Enrolled automatically before resolution so the pre-event price exists at all. The outcome is not recorded here and is never inferred from a price.

Yes

Polymarket18%

Recorded 2026-09-23 06:00 UTC · source

read from the venue's public market feed at as_of

Venue spread · Not comparable — only one venue price is recorded for each side of this question, so there is nothing to compare.

What actually happened

Not yet known. This event has not resolved, so the ledger records no outcome — Monitoring does not fill this in with a guess. Scheduled to resolve 2026-09-30 02:00 UTC.

Caveats on this record

  • Enrolled automatically; one venue only. A single-venue row cannot show cross-venue divergence.
  • outcome_label "Yes" is the venue's first outcome; the price is that side's implied probability.

Sources

Singapore Open: Oleksandra Oliynykova vs Maja Chwalinska

Awaiting resolution

Enrolled automatically before resolution so the pre-event price exists at all. The outcome is not recorded here and is never inferred from a price.

Yes

Polymarket2.5%

Recorded 2026-09-23 06:00 UTC · source

read from the venue's public market feed at as_of

Venue spread · Not comparable — only one venue price is recorded for each side of this question, so there is nothing to compare.

What actually happened

Not yet known. This event has not resolved, so the ledger records no outcome — Monitoring does not fill this in with a guess. Scheduled to resolve 2026-09-30 02:00 UTC.

Caveats on this record

  • Enrolled automatically; one venue only. A single-venue row cannot show cross-venue divergence.
  • outcome_label "Yes" is the venue's first outcome; the price is that side's implied probability.

Sources

Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Awaiting resolution

Enrolled automatically before resolution so the pre-event price exists at all. The outcome is not recorded here and is never inferred from a price.

Yes

Polymarket24.35%

Recorded 2026-09-19 06:00 UTC · source

read from the venue's public market feed at as_of

Venue spread · Not comparable — only one venue price is recorded for each side of this question, so there is nothing to compare.

What actually happened

Not yet known. This event has not resolved, so the ledger records no outcome — Monitoring does not fill this in with a guess. Scheduled to resolve 2026-09-30 00:00 UTC.

Caveats on this record

  • Enrolled automatically; one venue only. A single-venue row cannot show cross-venue divergence.
  • outcome_label "Yes" is the venue's first outcome; the price is that side's implied probability.

Sources

Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Awaiting resolution

Enrolled automatically before resolution so the pre-event price exists at all. The outcome is not recorded here and is never inferred from a price.

Yes

Polymarket0.15%

Recorded 2026-09-17 06:00 UTC · source

read from the venue's public market feed at as_of

Venue spread · Not comparable — only one venue price is recorded for each side of this question, so there is nothing to compare.

What actually happened

Not yet known. This event has not resolved, so the ledger records no outcome — Monitoring does not fill this in with a guess. Scheduled to resolve 2026-09-30 00:00 UTC.

Caveats on this record

  • Enrolled automatically; one venue only. A single-venue row cannot show cross-venue divergence.
  • outcome_label "Yes" is the venue's first outcome; the price is that side's implied probability.

Sources

Will Yabloko gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Awaiting resolution

Enrolled automatically before resolution so the pre-event price exists at all. The outcome is not recorded here and is never inferred from a price.

Yes

Polymarket0.15%

Recorded 2026-09-19 06:00 UTC · source

read from the venue's public market feed at as_of

Venue spread · Not comparable — only one venue price is recorded for each side of this question, so there is nothing to compare.

What actually happened

Not yet known. This event has not resolved, so the ledger records no outcome — Monitoring does not fill this in with a guess. Scheduled to resolve 2026-09-30 00:00 UTC.

Caveats on this record

  • Enrolled automatically; one venue only. A single-venue row cannot show cross-venue divergence.
  • outcome_label "Yes" is the venue's first outcome; the price is that side's implied probability.

Sources

Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Awaiting resolution

Enrolled automatically before resolution so the pre-event price exists at all. The outcome is not recorded here and is never inferred from a price.

Yes

Polymarket99.95%

Recorded 2026-09-21 06:00 UTC · source

read from the venue's public market feed at as_of

Venue spread · Not comparable — only one venue price is recorded for each side of this question, so there is nothing to compare.

What actually happened

Not yet known. This event has not resolved, so the ledger records no outcome — Monitoring does not fill this in with a guess. Scheduled to resolve 2026-09-30 00:00 UTC.

Caveats on this record

  • Enrolled automatically; one venue only. A single-venue row cannot show cross-venue divergence.
  • outcome_label "Yes" is the venue's first outcome; the price is that side's implied probability.

Sources

Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Awaiting resolution

Enrolled automatically before resolution so the pre-event price exists at all. The outcome is not recorded here and is never inferred from a price.

Yes

Polymarket0.35%

Recorded 2026-09-19 06:00 UTC · source

read from the venue's public market feed at as_of

Venue spread · Not comparable — only one venue price is recorded for each side of this question, so there is nothing to compare.

What actually happened

Not yet known. This event has not resolved, so the ledger records no outcome — Monitoring does not fill this in with a guess. Scheduled to resolve 2026-09-30 00:00 UTC.

Caveats on this record

  • Enrolled automatically; one venue only. A single-venue row cannot show cross-venue divergence.
  • outcome_label "Yes" is the venue's first outcome; the price is that side's implied probability.

Sources

Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Awaiting resolution

Enrolled automatically before resolution so the pre-event price exists at all. The outcome is not recorded here and is never inferred from a price.

Yes

Polymarket75.5%

Recorded 2026-09-16 06:00 UTC · source

read from the venue's public market feed at as_of

Venue spread · Not comparable — only one venue price is recorded for each side of this question, so there is nothing to compare.

What actually happened

Not yet known. This event has not resolved, so the ledger records no outcome — Monitoring does not fill this in with a guess. Scheduled to resolve 2026-09-30 00:00 UTC.

Caveats on this record

  • Enrolled automatically; one venue only. A single-venue row cannot show cross-venue divergence.
  • outcome_label "Yes" is the venue's first outcome; the price is that side's implied probability.

Sources

St. Tropez: Murphy Cassone vs Clement Tabur

Awaiting resolution

Enrolled automatically before resolution so the pre-event price exists at all. The outcome is not recorded here and is never inferred from a price.

Yes

Polymarket55.5%

Recorded 2026-09-23 06:00 UTC · source

read from the venue's public market feed at as_of

Venue spread · Not comparable — only one venue price is recorded for each side of this question, so there is nothing to compare.

What actually happened

Not yet known. This event has not resolved, so the ledger records no outcome — Monitoring does not fill this in with a guess. Scheduled to resolve 2026-09-29 14:00 UTC.

Caveats on this record

  • Enrolled automatically; one venue only. A single-venue row cannot show cross-venue divergence.
  • outcome_label "Yes" is the venue's first outcome; the price is that side's implied probability.

Sources

Korea Open: Xinxin Yao vs Maya Joint

Awaiting resolution

Enrolled automatically before resolution so the pre-event price exists at all. The outcome is not recorded here and is never inferred from a price.

Yes

Polymarket0.05%

Recorded 2026-09-21 06:00 UTC · source

read from the venue's public market feed at as_of

Venue spread · Not comparable — only one venue price is recorded for each side of this question, so there is nothing to compare.

What actually happened

Not yet known. This event has not resolved, so the ledger records no outcome — Monitoring does not fill this in with a guess. Scheduled to resolve 2026-09-28 03:00 UTC.

Caveats on this record

  • Enrolled automatically; one venue only. A single-venue row cannot show cross-venue divergence.
  • outcome_label "Yes" is the venue's first outcome; the price is that side's implied probability.

Sources

Korea Open: Anna Bondar vs Renata Zarazua

Awaiting resolution

Enrolled automatically before resolution so the pre-event price exists at all. The outcome is not recorded here and is never inferred from a price.

Yes

Polymarket64.5%

Recorded 2026-09-22 06:00 UTC · source

read from the venue's public market feed at as_of

Venue spread · Not comparable — only one venue price is recorded for each side of this question, so there is nothing to compare.

What actually happened

Not yet known. This event has not resolved, so the ledger records no outcome — Monitoring does not fill this in with a guess. Scheduled to resolve 2026-09-28 01:00 UTC.

Caveats on this record

  • Enrolled automatically; one venue only. A single-venue row cannot show cross-venue divergence.
  • outcome_label "Yes" is the venue's first outcome; the price is that side's implied probability.

Sources

Korea Open: Lanlana Tararudee vs Moyuka Uchijima

Awaiting resolution

Enrolled automatically before resolution so the pre-event price exists at all. The outcome is not recorded here and is never inferred from a price.

Yes

Polymarket99.95%

Recorded 2026-09-21 06:00 UTC · source

read from the venue's public market feed at as_of

Venue spread · Not comparable — only one venue price is recorded for each side of this question, so there is nothing to compare.

What actually happened

Not yet known. This event has not resolved, so the ledger records no outcome — Monitoring does not fill this in with a guess. Scheduled to resolve 2026-09-28 01:00 UTC.

Caveats on this record

  • Enrolled automatically; one venue only. A single-venue row cannot show cross-venue divergence.
  • outcome_label "Yes" is the venue's first outcome; the price is that side's implied probability.

Sources

Minnesota Twins vs. Los Angeles Angels

Awaiting resolution

Enrolled automatically before resolution so the pre-event price exists at all. The outcome is not recorded here and is never inferred from a price.

Yes

Polymarket0.05%

Recorded 2026-09-20 06:00 UTC · source

read from the venue's public market feed at as_of

Venue spread · Not comparable — only one venue price is recorded for each side of this question, so there is nothing to compare.

What actually happened

Not yet known. This event has not resolved, so the ledger records no outcome — Monitoring does not fill this in with a guess. Scheduled to resolve 2026-09-27 01:38 UTC.

Caveats on this record

  • Enrolled automatically; one venue only. A single-venue row cannot show cross-venue divergence.
  • outcome_label "Yes" is the venue's first outcome; the price is that side's implied probability.

Sources

Will France win on 2026-09-25?

Awaiting resolution

Enrolled automatically before resolution so the pre-event price exists at all. The outcome is not recorded here and is never inferred from a price.

Yes

Polymarket71.5%

Recorded 2026-09-25 06:00 UTC · source

read from the venue's public market feed at as_of

Venue spread · Not comparable — only one venue price is recorded for each side of this question, so there is nothing to compare.

What actually happened

Not yet known. This event has not resolved, so the ledger records no outcome — Monitoring does not fill this in with a guess. Scheduled to resolve 2026-09-25 18:45 UTC.

Caveats on this record

  • Enrolled automatically; one venue only. A single-venue row cannot show cross-venue divergence.
  • outcome_label "Yes" is the venue's first outcome; the price is that side's implied probability.

Sources

Counter-Strike: Alliance vs Sinners (BO3) - 1win Private Club #1 Playoffs

Awaiting resolution

Enrolled automatically before resolution so the pre-event price exists at all. The outcome is not recorded here and is never inferred from a price.

Yes

Polymarket54.5%

Recorded 2026-09-25 06:00 UTC · source

read from the venue's public market feed at as_of

Venue spread · Not comparable — only one venue price is recorded for each side of this question, so there is nothing to compare.

What actually happened

Not yet known. This event has not resolved, so the ledger records no outcome — Monitoring does not fill this in with a guess. Scheduled to resolve 2026-09-25 15:00 UTC.

Caveats on this record

  • Enrolled automatically; one venue only. A single-venue row cannot show cross-venue divergence.
  • outcome_label "Yes" is the venue's first outcome; the price is that side's implied probability.

Sources

Falcons vs. Packers: O/U 43.5

Awaiting resolution

Enrolled automatically before resolution so the pre-event price exists at all. The outcome is not recorded here and is never inferred from a price.

Yes

Polymarket47.5%

Recorded 2026-09-24 06:00 UTC · source

read from the venue's public market feed at as_of

Venue spread · Not comparable — only one venue price is recorded for each side of this question, so there is nothing to compare.

What actually happened

Not yet known. This event has not resolved, so the ledger records no outcome — Monitoring does not fill this in with a guess. Scheduled to resolve 2026-09-25 00:15 UTC.

Caveats on this record

  • Enrolled automatically; one venue only. A single-venue row cannot show cross-venue divergence.
  • outcome_label "Yes" is the venue's first outcome; the price is that side's implied probability.

Sources

Falcons vs. Packers

Awaiting resolution

Enrolled automatically before resolution so the pre-event price exists at all. The outcome is not recorded here and is never inferred from a price.

Yes

Polymarket30.5%

Recorded 2026-09-24 06:00 UTC · source

read from the venue's public market feed at as_of

Venue spread · Not comparable — only one venue price is recorded for each side of this question, so there is nothing to compare.

What actually happened

Not yet known. This event has not resolved, so the ledger records no outcome — Monitoring does not fill this in with a guess. Scheduled to resolve 2026-09-25 00:15 UTC.

Caveats on this record

  • Enrolled automatically; one venue only. A single-venue row cannot show cross-venue divergence.
  • outcome_label "Yes" is the venue's first outcome; the price is that side's implied probability.

Sources

Valencia: Guiomar Maristany vs Marina Bassols Ribera

Awaiting resolution

Enrolled automatically before resolution so the pre-event price exists at all. The outcome is not recorded here and is never inferred from a price.

Yes

Polymarket62.5%

Recorded 2026-09-17 06:00 UTC · source

read from the venue's public market feed at as_of

Venue spread · Not comparable — only one venue price is recorded for each side of this question, so there is nothing to compare.

What actually happened

Not yet known. This event has not resolved, so the ledger records no outcome — Monitoring does not fill this in with a guess. Scheduled to resolve 2026-09-23 12:30 UTC.

Caveats on this record

  • Enrolled automatically; one venue only. A single-venue row cannot show cross-venue divergence.
  • outcome_label "Yes" is the venue's first outcome; the price is that side's implied probability.

Sources

Phan Thiet 4: Kenta Miyoshi vs Philip Sekulic

Awaiting resolution

Enrolled automatically before resolution so the pre-event price exists at all. The outcome is not recorded here and is never inferred from a price.

Yes

Polymarket7%

Recorded 2026-09-16 06:00 UTC · source

read from the venue's public market feed at as_of

Venue spread · Not comparable — only one venue price is recorded for each side of this question, so there is nothing to compare.

What actually happened

Not yet known. This event has not resolved, so the ledger records no outcome — Monitoring does not fill this in with a guess. Scheduled to resolve 2026-09-23 03:00 UTC.

Caveats on this record

  • Enrolled automatically; one venue only. A single-venue row cannot show cross-venue divergence.
  • outcome_label "Yes" is the venue's first outcome; the price is that side's implied probability.

Sources

Exact Margin: Giants by 25+

Awaiting resolution

Enrolled automatically before resolution so the pre-event price exists at all. The outcome is not recorded here and is never inferred from a price.

Yes

Polymarket14.35%

Recorded 2026-09-21 06:00 UTC · source

read from the venue's public market feed at as_of

Venue spread · Not comparable — only one venue price is recorded for each side of this question, so there is nothing to compare.

What actually happened

Not yet known. This event has not resolved, so the ledger records no outcome — Monitoring does not fill this in with a guess. Scheduled to resolve 2026-09-22 00:15 UTC.

Caveats on this record

  • Enrolled automatically; one venue only. A single-venue row cannot show cross-venue divergence.
  • outcome_label "Yes" is the venue's first outcome; the price is that side's implied probability.

Sources

Sao Paulo Open: Xiaodi You vs Alina Charaeva

Awaiting resolution

Enrolled automatically before resolution so the pre-event price exists at all. The outcome is not recorded here and is never inferred from a price.

Yes

Polymarket37%

Recorded 2026-09-16 06:00 UTC · source

read from the venue's public market feed at as_of

Venue spread · Not comparable — only one venue price is recorded for each side of this question, so there is nothing to compare.

What actually happened

Not yet known. This event has not resolved, so the ledger records no outcome — Monitoring does not fill this in with a guess. Scheduled to resolve 2026-09-21 17:00 UTC.

Caveats on this record

  • Enrolled automatically; one venue only. A single-venue row cannot show cross-venue divergence.
  • outcome_label "Yes" is the venue's first outcome; the price is that side's implied probability.

Sources

Sao Paulo Open: Eva Lys vs Gabriela Ce

Awaiting resolution

Enrolled automatically before resolution so the pre-event price exists at all. The outcome is not recorded here and is never inferred from a price.

Yes

Polymarket75.95%

Recorded 2026-09-16 06:00 UTC · source

read from the venue's public market feed at as_of

Venue spread · Not comparable — only one venue price is recorded for each side of this question, so there is nothing to compare.

What actually happened

Not yet known. This event has not resolved, so the ledger records no outcome — Monitoring does not fill this in with a guess. Scheduled to resolve 2026-09-21 13:00 UTC.

Caveats on this record

  • Enrolled automatically; one venue only. A single-venue row cannot show cross-venue divergence.
  • outcome_label "Yes" is the venue's first outcome; the price is that side's implied probability.

Sources

Spread: KC (-5.5)

Awaiting resolution

Enrolled automatically before resolution so the pre-event price exists at all. The outcome is not recorded here and is never inferred from a price.

Yes

Polymarket49.5%

Recorded 2026-09-20 06:00 UTC · source

read from the venue's public market feed at as_of

Venue spread · Not comparable — only one venue price is recorded for each side of this question, so there is nothing to compare.

What actually happened

Not yet known. This event has not resolved, so the ledger records no outcome — Monitoring does not fill this in with a guess. Scheduled to resolve 2026-09-21 00:20 UTC.

Caveats on this record

  • Enrolled automatically; one venue only. A single-venue row cannot show cross-venue divergence.
  • outcome_label "Yes" is the venue's first outcome; the price is that side's implied probability.

Sources

Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Awaiting resolution

Enrolled automatically before resolution so the pre-event price exists at all. The outcome is not recorded here and is never inferred from a price.

Yes

Polymarket1.45%

Recorded 2026-09-20 06:00 UTC · source

read from the venue's public market feed at as_of

Venue spread · Not comparable — only one venue price is recorded for each side of this question, so there is nothing to compare.

What actually happened

Not yet known. This event has not resolved, so the ledger records no outcome — Monitoring does not fill this in with a guess. Scheduled to resolve 2026-09-20 23:59 UTC.

Caveats on this record

  • Enrolled automatically; one venue only. A single-venue row cannot show cross-venue divergence.
  • outcome_label "Yes" is the venue's first outcome; the price is that side's implied probability.

Sources

Bengals vs. Texans

Awaiting resolution

Enrolled automatically before resolution so the pre-event price exists at all. The outcome is not recorded here and is never inferred from a price.

Yes

Polymarket42.5%

Recorded 2026-09-18 06:00 UTC · source

read from the venue's public market feed at as_of

Venue spread · Not comparable — only one venue price is recorded for each side of this question, so there is nothing to compare.

What actually happened

Not yet known. This event has not resolved, so the ledger records no outcome — Monitoring does not fill this in with a guess. Scheduled to resolve 2026-09-20 17:00 UTC.

Caveats on this record

  • Enrolled automatically; one venue only. A single-venue row cannot show cross-venue divergence.
  • outcome_label "Yes" is the venue's first outcome; the price is that side's implied probability.

Sources

Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-09-20?

Awaiting resolution

Enrolled automatically before resolution so the pre-event price exists at all. The outcome is not recorded here and is never inferred from a price.

Yes

Polymarket47.5%

Recorded 2026-09-20 06:00 UTC · source

read from the venue's public market feed at as_of

Venue spread · Not comparable — only one venue price is recorded for each side of this question, so there is nothing to compare.

What actually happened

Not yet known. This event has not resolved, so the ledger records no outcome — Monitoring does not fill this in with a guess. Scheduled to resolve 2026-09-20 14:15 UTC.

Caveats on this record

  • Enrolled automatically; one venue only. A single-venue row cannot show cross-venue divergence.
  • outcome_label "Yes" is the venue's first outcome; the price is that side's implied probability.

Sources

Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?

Awaiting resolution

Enrolled automatically before resolution so the pre-event price exists at all. The outcome is not recorded here and is never inferred from a price.

Yes

Polymarket46.5%

Recorded 2026-09-18 06:00 UTC · source

read from the venue's public market feed at as_of

Venue spread · Not comparable — only one venue price is recorded for each side of this question, so there is nothing to compare.

What actually happened

Not yet known. This event has not resolved, so the ledger records no outcome — Monitoring does not fill this in with a guess. Scheduled to resolve 2026-09-20 00:00 UTC.

Caveats on this record

  • Enrolled automatically; one venue only. A single-venue row cannot show cross-venue divergence.
  • outcome_label "Yes" is the venue's first outcome; the price is that side's implied probability.

Sources

Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-09-19?

Awaiting resolution

Enrolled automatically before resolution so the pre-event price exists at all. The outcome is not recorded here and is never inferred from a price.

Yes

Polymarket79.5%

Recorded 2026-09-19 06:00 UTC · source

read from the venue's public market feed at as_of

Venue spread · Not comparable — only one venue price is recorded for each side of this question, so there is nothing to compare.

What actually happened

Not yet known. This event has not resolved, so the ledger records no outcome — Monitoring does not fill this in with a guess. Scheduled to resolve 2026-09-19 19:00 UTC.

Caveats on this record

  • Enrolled automatically; one venue only. A single-venue row cannot show cross-venue divergence.
  • outcome_label "Yes" is the venue's first outcome; the price is that side's implied probability.

Sources

Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5

Awaiting resolution

Enrolled automatically before resolution so the pre-event price exists at all. The outcome is not recorded here and is never inferred from a price.

Yes

Polymarket55.5%

Recorded 2026-09-19 06:00 UTC · source

read from the venue's public market feed at as_of

Venue spread · Not comparable — only one venue price is recorded for each side of this question, so there is nothing to compare.

What actually happened

Not yet known. This event has not resolved, so the ledger records no outcome — Monitoring does not fill this in with a guess. Scheduled to resolve 2026-09-19 11:30 UTC.

Caveats on this record

  • Enrolled automatically; one venue only. A single-venue row cannot show cross-venue divergence.
  • outcome_label "Yes" is the venue's first outcome; the price is that side's implied probability.

Sources

Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-09-18?

Awaiting resolution

Enrolled automatically before resolution so the pre-event price exists at all. The outcome is not recorded here and is never inferred from a price.

Yes

Polymarket92.5%

Recorded 2026-09-18 06:00 UTC · source

read from the venue's public market feed at as_of

Venue spread · Not comparable — only one venue price is recorded for each side of this question, so there is nothing to compare.

What actually happened

Not yet known. This event has not resolved, so the ledger records no outcome — Monitoring does not fill this in with a guess. Scheduled to resolve 2026-09-18 18:30 UTC.

Caveats on this record

  • Enrolled automatically; one venue only. A single-venue row cannot show cross-venue divergence.
  • outcome_label "Yes" is the venue's first outcome; the price is that side's implied probability.

Sources

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?

Awaiting resolution

Enrolled automatically before resolution so the pre-event price exists at all. The outcome is not recorded here and is never inferred from a price.

Yes

Polymarket0.05%

Recorded 2026-09-18 06:00 UTC · source

read from the venue's public market feed at as_of

Venue spread · Not comparable — only one venue price is recorded for each side of this question, so there is nothing to compare.

What actually happened

Not yet known. This event has not resolved, so the ledger records no outcome — Monitoring does not fill this in with a guess. Scheduled to resolve 2026-09-18 16:00 UTC.

Caveats on this record

  • Enrolled automatically; one venue only. A single-venue row cannot show cross-venue divergence.
  • outcome_label "Yes" is the venue's first outcome; the price is that side's implied probability.

Sources

LoL: Team WE vs JD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Regional Finals Playoffs

Awaiting resolution

Enrolled automatically before resolution so the pre-event price exists at all. The outcome is not recorded here and is never inferred from a price.

Yes

Polymarket41.5%

Recorded 2026-09-18 06:00 UTC · source

read from the venue's public market feed at as_of

Venue spread · Not comparable — only one venue price is recorded for each side of this question, so there is nothing to compare.

What actually happened

Not yet known. This event has not resolved, so the ledger records no outcome — Monitoring does not fill this in with a guess. Scheduled to resolve 2026-09-18 15:00 UTC.

Caveats on this record

  • Enrolled automatically; one venue only. A single-venue row cannot show cross-venue divergence.
  • outcome_label "Yes" is the venue's first outcome; the price is that side's implied probability.

Sources

Counter-Strike: Luminosity vs M80 (BO1) - Logitech G Play Connect Group A

Awaiting resolution

Enrolled automatically before resolution so the pre-event price exists at all. The outcome is not recorded here and is never inferred from a price.

Yes

Polymarket52.5%

Recorded 2026-09-17 06:00 UTC · source

read from the venue's public market feed at as_of

Venue spread · Not comparable — only one venue price is recorded for each side of this question, so there is nothing to compare.

What actually happened

Not yet known. This event has not resolved, so the ledger records no outcome — Monitoring does not fill this in with a guess. Scheduled to resolve 2026-09-17 20:00 UTC.

Caveats on this record

  • Enrolled automatically; one venue only. A single-venue row cannot show cross-venue divergence.
  • outcome_label "Yes" is the venue's first outcome; the price is that side's implied probability.

Sources

LoL: Top Esports vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) - LPL Regional Finals Playoffs

Awaiting resolution

Enrolled automatically before resolution so the pre-event price exists at all. The outcome is not recorded here and is never inferred from a price.

Yes

Polymarket44.5%

Recorded 2026-09-17 06:00 UTC · source

read from the venue's public market feed at as_of

Venue spread · Not comparable — only one venue price is recorded for each side of this question, so there is nothing to compare.

What actually happened

Not yet known. This event has not resolved, so the ledger records no outcome — Monitoring does not fill this in with a guess. Scheduled to resolve 2026-09-17 15:00 UTC.

Caveats on this record

  • Enrolled automatically; one venue only. A single-venue row cannot show cross-venue divergence.
  • outcome_label "Yes" is the venue's first outcome; the price is that side's implied probability.

Sources

Counter-Strike: NIP vs M80 (BO1) - Logitech G Play Connect Group A

Awaiting resolution

Enrolled automatically before resolution so the pre-event price exists at all. The outcome is not recorded here and is never inferred from a price.

Yes

Polymarket54.5%

Recorded 2026-09-17 06:00 UTC · source

read from the venue's public market feed at as_of

Venue spread · Not comparable — only one venue price is recorded for each side of this question, so there is nothing to compare.

What actually happened

Not yet known. This event has not resolved, so the ledger records no outcome — Monitoring does not fill this in with a guess. Scheduled to resolve 2026-09-17 15:00 UTC.

Caveats on this record

  • Enrolled automatically; one venue only. A single-venue row cannot show cross-venue divergence.
  • outcome_label "Yes" is the venue's first outcome; the price is that side's implied probability.

Sources

Who wins the 2026 FedEx Cup (TOUR Championship)?

Resolved

The PGA Tour's season finale, the TOUR Championship, which decides the FedEx Cup — scheduled to conclude 31 August 2026. A dated, objectively-resolvable event about 5.5 weeks out, and a genuinely open field: the market favourite is priced under 20%, unlike the Florida entry's near-locked frontrunner.

Scottie Scheffler

Polymarket19.5%

Recorded 2026-07-23 00:50 UTC · source

Read directly from Polymarket's public Gamma API (event fedex-cup-playoffs-winner, favourite market outcomePrices). Event volume $2.59M at read time.

Venue spread · Not comparable — only one venue price is recorded for each side of this question, so there is nothing to compare.

What actually happened

Scottie Scheffler · -16 (264 strokes: 65-67-66-66) · 72 holes of stroke play, no playoff · recorded 2026-09-02

Played 27–30 August 2026 at East Lake Golf Club, Atlanta. The PGA TOUR's official tournament record for the 2026 TOUR Championship (round 4, status OFFICIAL) carries Scottie Scheffler first at 16 under par, 264 strokes, three clear of Viktor Hovland (-13, 267), with Ryan Gerard third (-12, 268); the TOUR's FedExCup Standings, published "Through the TOUR Championship, August 30", carry Scheffler as the winner at rank 1.

What each venue priced beforehand

  • Polymarket·Scottie Scheffler19.5%·this side happened

That is the whole comparison: the number each venue carried, and which side occurred. It is not a score. A price is not a prediction, and neither venue is graded by a single event — that only becomes possible across many of them.

Caveats on this record

  • Only one venue is recorded, so this entry has no venue spread. Kalshi's public golf markets on 2026-07-23 were all long-dated (majors before 2028/2030); no open 2026 FedEx Cup or TOUR Championship winner market was listed. No second price was recorded, and none was derived.
  • This is an open field and only the favourite's price is recorded. Scottie Scheffler at 19.5% is the market's leading contender, not its predicted winner — the other ~80% is spread across the rest of the field.
  • This price is captured weeks before the tournament and can move. It is a record of what Polymarket carried on 2026-07-23, not a forecast by Monitoring.
  • Resolution was verified from the league before it was written here — the PGA TOUR's own official tournament record for the 2026 TOUR Championship and the same TOUR's FedExCup Standings, cross-checked against Polymarket's own settlement of the exact market this entry prices. No news report was used as the basis, and the recorded price above was not altered when the result was added.
  • The recorded price and the result are two separate facts. Polymarket carried Scottie Scheffler at 19.5% on 2026-07-23 in a field of more than a hundred listed players, and he won. One favourite winning once says nothing about whether 19.5% was the right number: a 19.5% shot wins about one time in five, so a single hit is equally consistent with a well-calibrated market and a badly-calibrated one.
  • The tournament finished on 30 August 2026, one day before this entry's recorded expected_resolution of 31 August 2026 — the date written on 2026-07-23 from the scheduled finish. The expected date has deliberately not been corrected after the fact; the gap is left visible instead.
  • This resolution was RECORDED on 2026-09-02, three days after the event it records. That gap is a fact about Monitoring's record-keeping, not about the market or the tournament, and it is not back-dated.

Who wins the 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary?

Resolved

Florida's Republican primary for governor, scheduled for 18 August 2026 — a dated, objectively-resolvable event roughly four weeks out. It is here to give the ledger a resolution on a weeks-not-months cadence while the November midterms entry sits open. Byron Donalds is the market's heavy frontrunner; his implied probability is what is recorded.

Byron Donalds

Polymarket95.85%

Recorded 2026-07-23 00:48 UTC · source

Read directly from Polymarket's public Gamma API (event republican-nominee-for-florida-governor, frontrunner market outcomePrices) — the same feed behind /api/predictions. Event volume $2.11M at read time.

Venue spread · Not comparable — only one venue price is recorded for each side of this question, so there is nothing to compare.

What actually happened

Byron Donalds · 811,131 votes (47.79%) of 1,697,330 cast · plurality of an eleven-candidate field · recorded 2026-09-01

Held 18 August 2026: the Florida Department of State's official results record Byron Donalds first with 811,131 votes (47.79%), Jay Collins second with 427,014 (25.16%) and James Fishback third with 177,809 (10.48%), and the Division of Elections candidate listing for the 3 November 2026 general election carries Donalds with primary status "Won" and every other Republican candidate "Eliminated".

What each venue priced beforehand

  • Polymarket·Byron Donalds95.85%·this side happened

That is the whole comparison: the number each venue carried, and which side occurred. It is not a score. A price is not a prediction, and neither venue is graded by a single event — that only becomes possible across many of them.

Caveats on this record

  • Only one venue is recorded, so this entry has no venue spread. Kalshi lists Florida GOP primary markets on 2026-07-23, but they price a candidate's vote-share percentage and 2nd/3rd/4th placement — different questions from "who wins the nomination". No directly-comparable Kalshi price was recorded, and none was derived.
  • Only the frontrunner's price is recorded. This is a multi-candidate field; recording Byron Donalds at 95.85% is a record of the market's leading contender, not a claim about the result and not a statement about any other candidate.
  • This price is captured weeks before the primary and can move. It is a record of what Polymarket carried on 2026-07-23, not a forecast by Monitoring.
  • Resolution was verified against the state election authority before it was written here — the Florida Division of Elections' own results for the 18 August 2026 primary (published as "Official Election Results") and the same Division's candidate listing for the November general election, which records this candidate's primary status as "Won". No news report was used as the basis, and the recorded price above was not altered when the result was added.
  • The recorded price and the result are two separate facts and are not compared here. Polymarket carried Byron Donalds at 95.85% on 2026-07-23; he was nominated with 47.79% of an eleven-candidate field. The market priced WHO WOULD BE NOMINATED, not the winner's vote share, and Florida holds no primary runoff — a plurality is the nomination. Reading 95.85% against 47.79% would be comparing two different quantities.
  • This resolution was RECORDED on 2026-09-01, 14 days after the event it records. That gap is a fact about Monitoring's record-keeping, not about the market or the election, and it is left visible rather than back-dated.

Who wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup — Spain or Argentina?

Resolved

The final, Spain v Argentina at MetLife Stadium, 19 July 2026. The single largest market in either venue's history: Kalshi's contract on this match passed $1.27B in trading volume before kickoff, against >$25B traded across all World Cup contracts.

Spain

Polymarket59.05%

Recorded 2026-07-19 00:45 UTC · source

Read directly from Polymarket's public Gamma API (World Cup Winner event, outcomePrices).

Kalshi61%

Recorded 2026-07-17 · source

Publisher-reported: Fortune, 2026-07-17 — "As of mid-day Friday, bets on Kalshi showed the Spanish team with 61% odds". Not a same-instant reading.

Argentina

Polymarket40.95%

Recorded 2026-07-19 00:45 UTC · source

Read directly from Polymarket's public Gamma API (World Cup Winner event, outcomePrices).

Venue spread · The venues disagree by 1.9 percentage points at their widest. Two independent pools of real money landing this close is the interesting part; a wide gap would be the signal instead. The spread says nothing about which venue was closer to the outcome — a spread is a disagreement, not a score.

What actually happened

Spain · 1–0 · after extra time (AET) · recorded 2026-07-20

Ferran Torres scored in the 106th minute, assisted by Nico Williams; Argentina played extra time a player down after Enzo Fernández was sent off (second yellow) in second-half stoppage time.

What each venue priced beforehand

  • Polymarket·Spain59.05%·this side happened
  • Polymarket·Argentina40.95%·this side did not happen
  • Kalshi·Spain61%·this side happened

That is the whole comparison: the number each venue carried, and which side occurred. It is not a score. A price is not a prediction, and neither venue is graded by a single event — that only becomes possible across many of them.

Caveats on this record

  • No Kalshi price for Argentina is recorded: the 61% Spain figure is publisher-reported and no matching Argentina figure was published alongside it. The gap is left visible rather than filled by arithmetic — in particular, Argentina was NOT derived as 1 − 0.61.
  • The two venue readings are ~2 days apart (Kalshi 17 July, Polymarket 19 July). Treat the venue spread as indicative, not as a simultaneous quote.
  • Polymarket's Argentina price is recorded as 40.95%, not rounded to 40%. The recorded figure is the one the venue carried.
  • Both recorded prices are for the OUTRIGHT question (who lifts the trophy, extra time and penalties included). Kalshi's public API also carries a separate regulation-time 3-way match market, which prices differently and is not the same question.
  • Resolution was verified against two independent primary sources (FIFA's match centre record and ESPN's match report) before it was written here. The recorded prices above were not altered when the result was added.
  • One resolved entry is an anecdote, not evidence of accuracy. A single event has no error bar, and a 59% favourite winning once is equally consistent with a well-calibrated market and a badly-calibrated one. Only the series can answer the question.

Every price on this page is a recorded observation of a public real-money prediction market, attributed to a named source with an as-of date. They are not forecasts by Monitoring, not an endorsement of any outcome, platform or product, and not a claim about what will happen. This page is information and entertainment only: it is not betting, financial or legal advice, not a recommendation to wager, and not affiliated with any exchange or bookmaker. Where an event has not resolved, no outcome is recorded and none is implied.

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