What the market priced vs what happened

Caveats on this record

• Only one venue is recorded. Kalshi's public elections API listed no open 2026 House-control market when this entry was written on 2026-07-20, so there is no second price to compare — and none was invented. This entry therefore has no venue spread.
• The two figures are separate binary contracts inside one Polymarket event group, not two independent readings. They currently sum to exactly 1.00; that is a property of how the group is quoted, not corroboration.
• This price is captured months before resolution and will move — possibly a great deal. It is a record of what the market carried on 2026-07-20, not a forecast by Monitoring and not a claim about the election.

Caveats on this record

• Only one venue is recorded, so this entry has no venue spread. Kalshi's public golf markets on 2026-07-23 were all long-dated (majors before 2028/2030); no open 2026 FedEx Cup or TOUR Championship winner market was listed. No second price was recorded, and none was derived.
• This is an open field and only the favourite's price is recorded. Scottie Scheffler at 19.5% is the market's leading contender, not its predicted winner — the other ~80% is spread across the rest of the field.
• This price is captured weeks before the tournament and can move. It is a record of what Polymarket carried on 2026-07-23, not a forecast by Monitoring.
• Resolution was verified from the league before it was written here — the PGA TOUR's own official tournament record for the 2026 TOUR Championship and the same TOUR's FedExCup Standings, cross-checked against Polymarket's own settlement of the exact market this entry prices. No news report was used as the basis, and the recorded price above was not altered when the result was added.
• The recorded price and the result are two separate facts. Polymarket carried Scottie Scheffler at 19.5% on 2026-07-23 in a field of more than a hundred listed players, and he won. One favourite winning once says nothing about whether 19.5% was the right number: a 19.5% shot wins about one time in five, so a single hit is equally consistent with a well-calibrated market and a badly-calibrated one.
• The tournament finished on 30 August 2026, one day before this entry's recorded expected_resolution of 31 August 2026 — the date written on 2026-07-23 from the scheduled finish. The expected date has deliberately not been corrected after the fact; the gap is left visible instead.
• This resolution was RECORDED on 2026-09-02, three days after the event it records. That gap is a fact about Monitoring's record-keeping, not about the market or the tournament, and it is not back-dated.

Caveats on this record

• Only one venue is recorded, so this entry has no venue spread. Kalshi lists Florida GOP primary markets on 2026-07-23, but they price a candidate's vote-share percentage and 2nd/3rd/4th placement — different questions from "who wins the nomination". No directly-comparable Kalshi price was recorded, and none was derived.
• Only the frontrunner's price is recorded. This is a multi-candidate field; recording Byron Donalds at 95.85% is a record of the market's leading contender, not a claim about the result and not a statement about any other candidate.
• This price is captured weeks before the primary and can move. It is a record of what Polymarket carried on 2026-07-23, not a forecast by Monitoring.
• Resolution was verified against the state election authority before it was written here — the Florida Division of Elections' own results for the 18 August 2026 primary (published as "Official Election Results") and the same Division's candidate listing for the November general election, which records this candidate's primary status as "Won". No news report was used as the basis, and the recorded price above was not altered when the result was added.
• The recorded price and the result are two separate facts and are not compared here. Polymarket carried Byron Donalds at 95.85% on 2026-07-23; he was nominated with 47.79% of an eleven-candidate field. The market priced WHO WOULD BE NOMINATED, not the winner's vote share, and Florida holds no primary runoff — a plurality is the nomination. Reading 95.85% against 47.79% would be comparing two different quantities.
• This resolution was RECORDED on 2026-09-01, 14 days after the event it records. That gap is a fact about Monitoring's record-keeping, not about the market or the election, and it is left visible rather than back-dated.

Caveats on this record

• No Kalshi price for Argentina is recorded: the 61% Spain figure is publisher-reported and no matching Argentina figure was published alongside it. The gap is left visible rather than filled by arithmetic — in particular, Argentina was NOT derived as 1 − 0.61.
• The two venue readings are ~2 days apart (Kalshi 17 July, Polymarket 19 July). Treat the venue spread as indicative, not as a simultaneous quote.
• Polymarket's Argentina price is recorded as 40.95%, not rounded to 40%. The recorded figure is the one the venue carried.
• Both recorded prices are for the OUTRIGHT question (who lifts the trophy, extra time and penalties included). Kalshi's public API also carries a separate regulation-time 3-way match market, which prices differently and is not the same question.
• Resolution was verified against two independent primary sources (FIFA's match centre record and ESPN's match report) before it was written here. The recorded prices above were not altered when the result was added.
• One resolved entry is an anecdote, not evidence of accuracy. A single event has no error bar, and a 59% favourite winning once is equally consistent with a well-calibrated market and a badly-calibrated one. Only the series can answer the question.