The Monitoring Situation Index (MSI)
One number. Zero to ten. Recomputed at most once every 60 seconds.
The MSI reads how much is happening from two public feeds — crypto market volatility and significant seismic activity — plus how fast the index itself is moving against its own recent history. It is computed when it is asked for, not on a schedule, and when a feed cannot be read the index reports itself unmeasured rather than filling the gap. One canonical reading. The VIX for world events.
How to read the number above. It is the most recent value this endpoint computed, not a reading taken at the moment you loaded the page. A pass is only a measurement when both feeds answered; when one does not, the value is arithmetic with a hole in it, it is labelled as such, and no sample is written to the 24-hour series — the series pauses instead of accruing a fiction. A paused series is the honest output of an unreadable input, not a fault.
What the MSI measures
The Monitoring Situation Index is one observable number, from 0.0 (nothing unusual) to 10.0 (a major event dominating the signals), that answers a single question: how much is happening in the world right now? Think of it as a barometer, not a forecast — it reads the present, it does not predict the future.
It rises when the signals move: larger 24-hour moves in the major crypto markets, more significant earthquakes, and a reading that is pulling away from its own recent baseline. When those fade, it falls. Since 2026-08-21 (formula v2) the index reads no news feed — it is a market-and-seismic barometer, not a headline counter. Every reading is derived from free, public, commercial-use-OK feeds — no private data, no opinions, no calls to action. It is information, not advice.
Scale
0.0 – 10.0
One canonical reading
Cadence
≤ 1 / 60s
On request, not on a schedule
History
Rolling 24h
Observed samples only, capped at 1,440
MSI over time
The rolling 24-hour series, capped at 1,440 points. The full machine-readable history is public at /api/msi/history. We plot only points we actually observed — the series accrues forward, never backfilled, and it stops accruing entirely while any input is unreadable. Gaps in this chart are real gaps in observation, so the point count below will normally be lower than the elapsed minutes.
Rolling 24-hour buffer, capped at 1,440 points and persisted between deploys. A point is written only when a reading was taken and every input answered, so this is sparser than one-per-minute — we don't backfill points we didn't observe.
How it's computed
The MSI is a weighted sum of three signals, each normalised to a 0–1 range, then scaled to a 0–10 score. The formula is public on purpose. We show our work. For the full input-by-input breakdown, the 60-second cache window, the rolling 24-hour history, and what the number does not claim, see the MSI methodology.
MSI = 10 × (
0.40 · market // avg |BTC, ETH 24h %| / 8 (CoinGecko)
+ 0.35 · seismic // M4.5+ quakes in 24h / 40 (USGS)
+ 0.25 · velocity // drift vs trailing baseline (own history)
) // formula v2 — 2026-08-210–2 · Calm
Nothing unusual happening.
2–4 · Background
Normal activity. Minor stories.
4–6 · Active
Meaningful events developing.
6–8 · Escalating
Multiple concurrent active situations.
8–10 · Intense
Major unfolding event(s) dominating signals.
Inputs
- CoinGecko — 24h crypto volatility (BTC + ETH).
- USGS — significant earthquake count (M4.5+, last 24h).
Velocity is derived from the index's own stored history, not from a separate feed. These two are the whole of what the formula reads — the status of each is below. Before 2026-08-21 the index also read a news feed; see the methodology changelog.
All free, commercial-use-OK.
Input freshness
Reading input status…
Embed the MSI
Put the live index on your own site, dashboard or README. Both formats read the free, public MSI and link back here. Free to use with attribution — keep the credit line that ships with each snippet.
Live card · iframe
A compact, auto-refreshing card. 240×80. Keep the credit line — it is the only condition.
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One-line badge for READMEs, Notion and blogs. Works anywhere an image does.
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All situations →
The individual events the MSI is reading — browse the full archive.
Accuracy ledger →
What prediction markets priced before an event resolved — recorded in advance, with sources.
Prediction markets →
How big the category got — venue volumes and regulation, cited and dated.
The MSI is an observable index of public signals · information, not advice